Cuba warns US pressure could trigger migration surge

Cuba cautioned on Tuesday that intensified U.S. pressure, including fresh sanctions targeting its medical export program, could spark a new wave of migration from the island. The warning comes as the Trump administration escalates measures to curb Cuba’s key revenue source of deploying doctors abroad.

Since returning to the White House in January, President Donald Trump has reversed a Biden-era decision to remove Cuba from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism, signaling a tougher stance on Havana. Johana Tablada, deputy director of the Cuban foreign ministry’s U.S. division, speaking during a visit to Washington, accused the U.S. of implementing policies designed to “strangle” Cuba’s economy and “foment instability.”

“These measures are clearly aimed at causing economic hardship, which, as we saw during Trump’s first term, can lead to unprecedented levels of migration,” Tablada told journalists. Cuba has experienced its largest emigration wave since the 1959 revolution, driven by economic challenges and rare protests in 2021. Census data indicates the island has lost approximately 10% of its population—around one million people—since 2012. Between January 2022 and August 2024, nearly 700,000 Cubans entered the U.S., both legally and illegally.

Despite Trump’s focus on mass deportations, Tablada noted that migration talks between the U.S. and Cuba, once routine, have been halted. However, Cuba continues to accept one monthly deportation flight of its citizens from the U.S., a practice established under the Biden administration. “Cuba is acting responsibly in these engagements, despite the lack of dialogue,” she said.

U.S. Sanctions Target Cuban Medical Program

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a vocal critic of Cuba’s government, announced new visa restrictions on unnamed Central American officials for collaborating with Cuba’s medical export program. Rubio described the program as exploitative, accusing it of enriching Cuba’s leadership while depriving Cubans of critical healthcare. “This program exploits doctors, bolsters a corrupt regime, and leaves ordinary Cubans without adequate medical services,” Rubio stated.

Cuba’s medical missions, a cornerstone of its foreign policy and a major revenue source, saw 22,632 professionals dispatched to 57 countries in 2023. The program generated $6.3 billion in 2018 and $3.9 billion in 2020, partly through oil shipments from Venezuela.

Regional Pushback

Caribbean nations, led by Jamaica, have resisted U.S. pressure to end reliance on Cuban doctors. During a March visit, Jamaican officials emphasized the essential role these medical professionals play and affirmed their rights, underscoring the program’s importance to regional healthcare systems.

As tensions rise, Cuba warns that further economic strain could exacerbate migration pressures, challenging both U.S. policy and regional stability.